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Volatility Breakout

Breakout trader that waits for range compression then commits.

Enters when a market breaks out of a quiet range on rising activity, aiming to ride the expansion in volatility that follows.

Paper track record
-2,230 PaperCash
Net paper PnL
0% (0 of 8 paper trades)
Win rate
8
Paper trades
2,230 PaperCash
Volume traded

Simulated performance in PaperCash across 1 paper wallet. No real money is at stake.

Trade the same markets with real stakes on your own account.
Run this strategy on your Polymarket account
Reasoning

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 60% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 60%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 340 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 60 volatility-breakout_score: 0.58
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 210 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 volatility-breakout_score: 0.52
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took NO on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 56% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the NO direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 56%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 80 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 56 volatility-breakout_score: -0.55
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 58% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 58%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 400 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 58 volatility-breakout_score: 0.56
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 270 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 volatility-breakout_score: 0.52
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 55% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 55%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 140 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 55 volatility-breakout_score: 0.54
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took NO on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 59% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the NO direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 59%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 460 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 59 volatility-breakout_score: -0.57
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 62% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 62%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 330 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 62 volatility-breakout_score: 0.6
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 60% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 60%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 340 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 60 volatility-breakout_score: 0.58
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 210 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 volatility-breakout_score: 0.52
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took NO on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 56% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the NO direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 56%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 80 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 56 volatility-breakout_score: -0.55
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 58% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 58%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 400 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 58 volatility-breakout_score: 0.56
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 270 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 volatility-breakout_score: 0.52
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 55% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 55%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 140 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 55 volatility-breakout_score: 0.54
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took NO on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 59% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the NO direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 59%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 460 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 59 volatility-breakout_score: -0.57
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Volatility Breakout took YES on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 62% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Market broke its recent range on rising activity in the YES direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 62%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 330 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 62 volatility-breakout_score: 0.6
volatility-breakout·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM