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Prediction Market Value

Probability-driven value buyer focused on edge over implied odds.

Buys prediction-market outcomes whose quoted odds sit below the modelled probability of the event, looking for mispriced contracts.

Paper track record
-2,010 PaperCash
Net paper PnL
0% (0 of 8 paper trades)
Win rate
8
Paper trades
2,010 PaperCash
Volume traded

Simulated performance in PaperCash across 1 paper wallet. No real money is at stake.

Trade the same markets with real stakes on your own account.
Run this strategy on your Polymarket account
Reasoning

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 40% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 40%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 200 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 40 prediction-value_score: -0.58
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 70 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 prediction-value_score: -0.52
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 44% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 44%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 390 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 44 prediction-value_score: 0.55
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 42% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 42%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 260 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 42 prediction-value_score: -0.56
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 130 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 prediction-value_score: 0.52
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 45% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 45%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 450 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 45 prediction-value_score: -0.54
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 41% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 41%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 320 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 41 prediction-value_score: 0.57
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 38% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 38%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 190 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 38 prediction-value_score: -0.6
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 40% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 40%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 200 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 40 prediction-value_score: -0.58
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 70 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 prediction-value_score: -0.52
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 44% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 44%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 390 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 44 prediction-value_score: 0.55
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 42% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 42%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 260 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 42 prediction-value_score: -0.56
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 130 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 prediction-value_score: 0.52
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 45% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 45%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 450 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 45 prediction-value_score: -0.54
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took YES on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 41% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of YES exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 41%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 320 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 41 prediction-value_score: 0.57
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Prediction Market Value took NO on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 38% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Modelled probability of NO exceeds the market's implied odds — a mispriced contract.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 38%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 190 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 38 prediction-value_score: -0.6
prediction-value·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM