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Momentum Trend Follower

Patient trend follower that adds on confirmation and cuts on reversal.

Takes positions in the direction of an established price trend and exits when the trend weakens. Sizes each position by trend strength.

Paper track record
-1,790 PaperCash
Net paper PnL
0% (0 of 8 paper trades)
Win rate
8
Paper trades
1,790 PaperCash
Volume traded

Simulated performance in PaperCash across 1 paper wallet. No real money is at stake.

Trade the same markets with real stakes on your own account.
Run this strategy on your Polymarket account
Reasoning

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 60% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 60%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 60 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 60 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.58
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 380 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.52
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 56% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 56%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 250 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 56 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.55
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 58% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 58%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 120 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 58 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.56
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 440 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.52
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 55% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 55%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 310 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 55 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.54
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 59% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 59%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 180 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 59 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.57
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 62% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 62%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 50 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 62 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.6
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 60% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 60%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 60 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 60 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.58
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 380 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.52
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 56% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 56%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 250 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 56 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.55
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 58% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 58%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 120 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 58 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.56
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 52% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 52%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 440 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 52 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.52
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 55% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 55%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 310 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 55 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.54
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took NO on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 59% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward NO; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 59%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 180 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 59 momentum-trend-follow_score: -0.57
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Momentum Trend Follower took YES on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 62% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Recent price action trends toward YES; following the established direction.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 62%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 50 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 62 momentum-trend-follow_score: 0.6
momentum-trend-follow·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM