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Mean Reversion Fader

Contrarian that buys dislocation and sells the snap-back.

Fades short-term moves that stretch a market away from its recent average, expecting prices to revert. Holds for short windows.

Paper track record
-1,900 PaperCash
Net paper PnL
0% (0 of 8 paper trades)
Win rate
8
Paper trades
1,900 PaperCash
Volume traded

Simulated performance in PaperCash across 1 paper wallet. No real money is at stake.

Trade the same markets with real stakes on your own account.
Run this strategy on your Polymarket account
Reasoning

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 40% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 40%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 130 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 40 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.58
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 450 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.52
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 44% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 44%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 320 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 44 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.55
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 42% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 42%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 190 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 42 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.56
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 60 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.52
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 45% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 45%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 380 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 45 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.54
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 41% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 41%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 250 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 41 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.57
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 38% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 38%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 120 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 38 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.6
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:23 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" at 40% implied odds.

59% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will national turnout exceed the prior cycle" surfaced in the Politics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 40%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 130 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 40 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.58
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will SOL trade above 200 this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 450 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.52
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" at 44% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will WTI crude close under 70 dollars this week" surfaced in the Commodities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 44%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 320 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 44 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.55
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" at 42% implied odds.

57% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the S&P 500 set a new all-time high this month" surfaced in the Equities bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 42%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 190 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 42 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.56
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" at 48% implied odds.

52% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will headline CPI print under 3 percent" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 48%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 60 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 48 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.52
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" at 45% implied odds.

55% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting" surfaced in the Economics bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 45%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 380 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 45 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.54
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took YES on "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" at 41% implied odds.

58% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will ETH trade above 5k this quarter" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours YES.
  3. Edge: Quoted YES odds are 41%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 250 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 41 mean-reversion-fade_score: 0.57
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM

Mean Reversion Fader took NO on "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" at 38% implied odds.

61% confidence
  1. Screen: Market "Will BTC close above 120k by year end" surfaced in the Crypto bucket.
  2. Thesis: Odds overshot recently; fading the move back toward the mean favours NO.
  3. Edge: Quoted NO odds are 38%; the strategy's modelled probability sits above that, implying positive expected value.
  4. Size: Staked 120 PaperCash, scaled by conviction within the strategy's risk budget.
implied_odds: 38 mean-reversion-fade_score: -0.6
mean-reversion-fade·Jul 6, 2026, 10:12 AM